Last run: 2026-10-24
| Ticker | Price | DG (pp) | Asymmetry | Tension | Trajectory | FMP Score | Low | Medium | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGX.TO | $4.7 | 792.4 | 2.8:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 70.6 | $2.93 | $9.61 | — |
| GGP.L | $454.8 | 110.9 | 2.5:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 89.7 | $297.23 | $844.54 | — |
| TSM | $418.51 | 88.2 | 132.9:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 100.0 | $412.35 | $1237.05 | — |
| AEM | $173.94 | 84.7 | 2.9:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 69.3 | $50.97 | $528.45 | LOW BASE |
| DUOL | $143.04 | 76.8 | 3.9:1 | MEDIUM | Decelerating | 72.4 | $108.16 | $279.48 | — |
| ABX.TO | $53.36 | 70.4 | 2.2:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 66.6 | $11.09 | $148.07 | — |
| GFI | $34.59 | 56.7 | 3.5:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 84.8 | $16.12 | $99.5 | — |
| 0KGS.L | $36.35 | 49.6 | 80.7:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 68.8 | $35.44 | $109.8 | LOW BASE |
| PEGA | $36.42 | 49.4 | 45.7:1 | MEDIUM | Accelerating | 68.8 | $34.81 | $109.95 | LOW BASE |
| 0R28.L | $111.5 | 42.1 | 5.1:1 | MEDIUM | Decelerating | 71.0 | $67.4 | $337.65 | — |
How to read this table
- DG (pp) — Delivery Gap
- Historical FCF CAGR minus the market's implied FCF CAGR, in percentage points. A positive DG means the company has historically delivered faster free cash flow growth than the market is pricing in. Higher = wider gap between what the company has done and what the market assumes. Anything above 0pp passes the screen. Single-digit values represent tighter conviction; double-digit signals a significant mismatch. The DG shown is adjusted for trajectory: +2pp bonus if Accelerating, 0.8x if Decelerating, 0.5x if Deteriorating.
- Asymmetry
- Upside-to-downside ratio: (medium price − current price) / (current price − low price). A value of 3.0:1 means for every $1 of downside to the bear case, there is $3 of upside to the base case. Minimum 2.0:1 to pass the screen. Higher = more favourably skewed risk/reward.
- Price / Low / Medium
- Price = current market price (refreshed on load). Low = Impliedby bear-case fair value (worst reasonable outcome). Medium = Impliedby base-case fair value (most likely outcome). Asymmetry is calculated from these three numbers. If price is closer to Low, upside is large; if price is near Medium, most of the move is priced in.
- Tension
- Impliedby's overall tension rating between market price and fundamentals. LOW = market underpricing fundamentals (favourable). MEDIUM = roughly fairly priced. HIGH = overpriced or overly optimistic — eliminated at Stage 3.
- Trajectory
- Direction of the business based on recent vs historical performance: = revenue growth above 3yr trend AND margins improving (best, +2pp DG bonus). Stable = revenue growing but margins softening, or vice versa (no adjustment). = revenue growth slowing but margins holding (0.8x DG haircut). = both revenue growth and margins declining (0.5x DG haircut).
- FMP Score
- Composite fundamental quality score (0–100) from Stage 2, based on: FCF yield (25%), FCF CAGR (25%), net margin (15%), ROE (15%), revenue growth (10%), and net debt/EBITDA (10%). Pool-normalized against all 700+ screened stocks. Higher is better.
- Flags
- LOW BASE = historical FCF CAGR is inflated by a very small starting value (end/start FCF ratio exceeds 10x). The Delivery Gap likely overstates the true edge. Hover for details.
Enriched Screen
Enriched run: 2026-10-24
| Ticker | Category | Hdln Yield | SBC-Adj Yield | SBC/FCF | Perp. Premium | FCF Margin Δ | Inc. ROIC | 50d SMA | Volume | Activist | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSE | B | 66.1% | 66.1% | 0% | -85% | -118.2pp | 0.0% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | — | SBC MISSING |
| TSM | B | 45.7% | 45.7% | 0% | -78% | +3.0pp | 39.2% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | — | — |
| HRMY | B | 16.4% | 14.3% | 13% | -30% | +7.1pp | 3087.6% | BELOW 50D | ELEVATED | — | — |
| OLA.TO | B | 14.1% | 13.9% | 1% | -28% | +21.0pp | 342.3% | BELOW 50D | ELEVATED | NON-US | — |
| WGX.TO | B | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0% | -23% | +22.5pp | 43.9% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | NON-US | SBC MISSING |
| 0K0E.L | B | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0% | -14% | +13.8pp | 413.1% | CROSSING | LOW VOLUME | NON-US | SBC MISSING |
| GFI | B | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0% | -1% | +21.2pp | 51.9% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | — | SBC MISSING |
| DLO | B | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0% | +5% | -1.3pp | 321.6% | ABOVE 50D CONFIRMED | ELEVATED | — | SBC MISSING |
| CNX | B | 9.1% | 8.7% | 4% | +15% | +7.9pp | -9.2% | ABOVE 50D CONFIRMED | LOW VOLUME | — | — |
| 0KGS.L | C | 7.3% | 7.3% | 0% | +37% | +29.1pp | 1375.5% | ABOVE 50D EARLY | ACCUMULATION | NON-US | SBC MISSING |
| 0R28.L | C | 5.9% | 5.8% | 1% | +72% | +23.1pp | 66.7% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | NON-US | — |
| PEGA | C | 7.3% | 5.0% | 32% | +101% | +29.1pp | 0.0% | ABOVE 50D EARLY | ELEVATED | — | — |
| AEM | C | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2% | +110% | +26.1pp | 72.3% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | — | — |
| ABX.TO | C | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6% | +132% | +20.8pp | 385.8% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | NON-US | — |
| DUOL | C | 5.3% | 3.4% | 37% | +198% | +22.6pp | 72.8% | CROSSING | NORMAL | — | — |
| GGP.L | D | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0% | +7542% | +35.8pp | 99.3% | BELOW 50D | NORMAL | NON-US | EMPLOYEE BIZ SBC MISSING |
How to read this table
- Hdln Yield — Headline FCF Yield
- Free cash flow per share divided by share price. This is the raw owner earnings yield before any adjustments. Think of it as: "If this company paid out all its FCF, what annual return would I get at today's price?" Higher is better. Below 5% means the stock is priced for significant growth.
- SBC-Adj Yield — Stock-Based Compensation Adjusted Yield
- FCF minus stock-based compensation, divided by price. SBC dilutes existing shareholders, so this is the real cash yield after accounting for equity given to employees. The gap between headline and SBC-adjusted tells you how much of the "free" cash flow is being recycled to retain staff. Green (≥5%) = genuine cash generation. Red (<3%) = most FCF is consumed by SBC.
- SBC/FCF — SBC as % of Free Cash Flow
- What fraction of FCF is spent on stock-based compensation. Under 10% is healthy. 20–40% is common in tech but worth noting. Amber (>20%) = meaningful dilution. Red (>40%) = employee business — shareholders are funding payroll via equity.
- Perp. Premium — Price vs Perpetuity Value
- How much you're paying above (or below) a no-growth perpetuity value (SBC-adjusted FCF / 10% WACC). The perpetuity assumes zero growth forever — it's a floor valuation. Green (≤0%) = trading below no-growth value, you're being paid to own it. Red (>30%) = market is pricing in substantial growth. The higher this number, the more growth needs to materialise to justify the price.
- FCF Margin Δ — FCF Margin Change (current vs 3 years ago)
- Is the business converting more revenue to free cash flow over time? Positive = margins expanding (operating leverage or pricing power). Negative = margins compressing (competition, investment phase, or deterioration). This is the single best indicator of whether the delivery gap will persist.
- Inc. ROIC — Incremental Return on Invested Capital
- Return generated on the new capital deployed over the last 3 years. High values (>50%) mean the business is deploying capital productively. Zero or negative means new investment isn't generating additional returns yet.
- 50d SMA — 50-Day Simple Moving Average Signal
- Where is price relative to its 50-day moving average? BELOW 50D = downtrend, no technical support. CROSSING = within 2% of SMA, potential inflection. ABOVE 50D EARLY = recently crossed above (<5 days), early signal. ABOVE 50D CONFIRMED = sustained above SMA (≥5 days), trend confirmed.
- Volume
- Is institutional money flowing in or out? ACCUMULATION = elevated volume with >60% up-days — smart money buying. ELEVATED = above-average volume, direction unclear. DISTRIBUTION = elevated volume but mostly down-days — selling pressure. LOW VOLUME / NORMAL = no unusual activity.
- Activist
- Whether a known value-oriented activist investor holds a position, sourced from 13F filings. Checked against 11 funds: Elliott, ValueAct, Starboard, Third Point, Trian, Jana, Pershing Square, Icahn, Engine No. 1, Cevian. Fund (new/building) = ACTIVIST_VALIDATED: new or increasing position worth >$50M or >1% ownership. This is a conviction modifier — it does not change the category. Activist presence pre-disciplines management on capital allocation and SBC. Non-US tickers show NON-US because 13F filings only cover US-listed securities.
Categories & So What
- A Actionable Now
- Fundamental + technical alignment. SBC-adj yield ≥5%, at or below perpetuity, price above 50d SMA with volume confirmation. Action: Size a position. This is what the system is built to find — cheap cash flow with momentum confirming the thesis. When a B transitions to A, you get a notification.
- B Fundamental Quality, Await Technical
- Passes all fundamental filters but price is still below the 50-day SMA. The value is there; the market hasn't recognised it yet. Action: Watch daily. These names persist on the watchlist and are re-screened automatically. When price crosses the SMA with volume, the category upgrades to A and you get an alert. Don't front-run the technical — patience here is the edge.
- C Watchlist (Growth Bet)
- Either the SBC-adj yield is thin (<5%) despite decent headline numbers, or the stock trades >15% above perpetuity. You're paying for growth that hasn't been delivered yet in FCF terms. Action: Park it. Only revisit if you have independent conviction the growth will convert to cash (e.g. post-earnings re-rating, new product cycle). Not a systematic position — a discretionary one.
- D Pass
- Structural concern: either an employee business (SBC eating the FCF), yields too low to compensate for risk, or trading far above perpetuity with declining margins. Action: Move on. The first-pass filter surfaced it on delivery gap, but the enriched screen reveals the gap is narrower than it looks, or the business economics don't support the thesis. No position.